Volume VIII Number 1 January/February 2000

The U.S. Beef Trade, where we've been and what lies ahead.

By Dave Weaber


The international trade of U.S. beef is vital to the growth of the beef industry. With more than 95 percent of the world's population living outside of the United States, there is great opportunity for exports as foreign countries become more affluent and their economies strengthen. The growth in U.S. beef exports during the past 30 years has been phenomenal and now brings more dollars to the U.S. beef industry than U.S. consumers spend on beef imports. This trend has certainly been positive for our industry, but the U.S. beef picture hasn't always been as balanced as it is today.

In the past, the tonnage of imported beef far outweighed the amount of beef that the U.S. exported. In 1970, the U.S. imported a little more than 1.8 billion pounds of beef and exported only 40.5 million pounds of product. So, for every pound of beef we exported, we imported nearly 45 pounds. By 1980, beef exports had grown by more than 425 percent from 1970 to 175 million pounds, but, imports had also grown 15 percent to 2.1 billion pounds. In 1980, exports accounted for less than 1 percent of U.S. beef production.

Relaxation of trade barriers during the 1980s spawned dramatic growth in U.S. beef exports. The impressive strength of the Japanese economy during this period was also a major contributor to this increase. By 1990, U.S. beef exports had reached 1 billion pounds per year -- 574 percent larger than the total for 1980. Imports had grown slightly and in 1990 totaled nearly 2.4 billion pounds.

In 20 years, the United States had shifted from importing 45 pounds of beef for every pound exported to importing only 2.3 pounds for every pound exported. Exports in 1990 accounted for 4.4 percent of U.S. beef production and were valued at $1.58 billion -- an average of $1.57 per pound. Imports in 1990 were valued at $1.86 billion or about 79 cents per pound.

The difference in per-pound price is due to imports consisting of mainly manufacturing-grade beef that is grass fed. The products that we export are predominantly higher value cuts (middle meats) from fed steers and heifers and beef variety meats.

In 1992, U.S. beef exports were worth more than imports for the first time. The U.S. exported $2.3 billion in beef (2.2 billion pounds) and imported $1.8 billion in beef (2.6 billion pounds). Increasing exports during the 1990s helped narrow the ratio between imports and exports, and in 1998 the U.S. imported only 1.2 pounds of beef for every pound exported.

During 1998 beef export volumes more than doubled compared to 1990, and the total value of exported beef products has grown by 47 percent. The United States had a beef trade surplus of $484 million in 1998 -- more than three-quarters of a billion dollars larger than the difference in 1990, which had a beef trade deficit of $281 million. In 1998, the U.S. exported 8.5 percent of the beef produced domestically.

In times of abundant beef supplies, trade relations that promote exports are much more important than those that limit imports. There is a larger demand for inexpensive manufacturing-type beef than domestic producers can or will supply. As a result, beef imports remain somewhat flat, while export volumes grow.

Volumes of exported and imported beef are each projected to increase about 8 percent in 1999 when compared to a year ago, setting new records. Exports are expected to total 2.35 billion pounds and imports are forecast to total 2.87 billion pounds. Exports are expected to continue to grow into the next century, although at a slower rate, as other nations' economies gain strength. U.S. beef export growth will be limited, due to decreasing beef production during the next several years. This smaller U.S. beef production will fuel growth in imports to meet domestic needs for manufacturing beef.

While demand for beef in the United States appears to have improved during 1999, greater long-term growth potential lies overseas. The U.S population accounts for about 4 percent of the world population, yet consumes more beef than Brazil and China combined, with 24 percent of the world population. Very few other countries have the developed infrastructure and feed-grain production systems required to produce beef of the quality of U.S. beef. The U.S. needs to continue to market and promote its product to Asian countries, as they have seen the greatest increases in per-capita beef consumption. For example, China has seen a 350 percent increase in per-capita consumption of beef since 1990, and South Korean consumption has nearly doubled. These countries, which have large populations that are becoming more affluent, offer the greatest opportunity for growth in U.S. beef exports and must be a priority for our marketing and promotion programs. Gaining a foothold in these developing markets will be invaluable and vital to the continued strength of U.S. beef exports.

This article reprinted from the National Cattlemen magazine, courtesy of Cattle-Fax.




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