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There are no signs that herd expansion is taking place in the United States. To expand the U.S. cattle herd producers will have to hold females back from slaughter, but that has not taken place yet. One way to determine whether expansion is under way is to examine year-to-year changes in cow slaughter. Total cow slaughter this year has been above last year by five to six percent. Most of this year's cow slaughter increase is due to an increase in the numbers of beef cows being slaughtered. The dairy cow slaughter has remained below figures from a year ago since the start of the spring quarter. The beef cow slaughter pace actually picked up steam this summer, confirming that cow-calf operators don't plan to expand their herds this year. That's a bit of a change from what appeared to be taking place earlier this year. Beef cow slaughter started the year off well above a year ago, averaging 11 percent above 2000's first quarter. But there were signs that cow slaughter was going to slow down this past spring when beef cow slaughter averaged just six percent above last year. Instead, cow slaughter increased dramatically this summer compared to last year, averaging 19 percent above 2000's pace through mid-August. Poor pasture and range conditions are responsible for the big beef cow slaughter increase. Nationally, nearly 40 percent of the pastures and range are reported to be in poor or very poor condition, close to last year's level, but well above the five-year average. The worst conditions are in the Southern Plains, West and Corn Belt. One of the few areas of the country with pasture conditions that are actually better than last year is the Southeast. "The beef cow slaughter pace actually picked up steam this summer, confirming that cow-calf operators don't plan to expand their herds this year," according to Kansas State University Economist James Mintert. Overall, it's becoming increasingly clear that U.S. beef cow operators will not expand their cow herds until they are assured that ample forage supplements will be available to sustain a larger cow herd. That means expansion is on hold until next spring, at the earliest. © |
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