U.S. consumers ate more meat this year than at any time in history. Total per capita consumption of all red meat and poultry by U.S. consumers is expected to approach 219 pounds (retail weight) during 2002, which is a new record. To put 2002's meat consumption in perspective, look at how much meat consumption has changed over the last several decades. In 1960 total meat consumption in the U.S. was just 166 pounds per person and in 1980 consumption was about 195 pounds. So, during 2002 Americans consumed about 32 percent more meat than in 1960 and about 12 percent more than in 1980.

Virtually all of the growth in meat consumption over the last four decades has been in poultry. For example, retail weight broiler consumption in 1960 was 23.5 pounds per capita, but increased nearly 240 percent to about 80 pounds by 2002. In contrast U.S. beef consumption changed little over the same time period, rising just 6.5 percent, and pork consumption actually declined 13 percent.

U.S. livestock and poultry producers were plagued during 2002 by surprisingly large meat supplies, which resulted in lower livestock prices and large losses for cattle feeders and hog producers. U.S. consumers per capita meat consumption during 2002 rose 2.5 percent above 2001's. The relatively large increase in total meat consumption occurred because beef, pork and chicken consumption increased 2.1, 2.5 and 3.9 percent, respectively, all compared to 2001.

Fortunately, U.S. meat supplies are expected to tighten modestly during 2003 which should help support U.S. livestock and poultry prices. U.S. beef production during 2003 is expected to decline about 2.5 percent compared to 2002, which should drop domestic beef consumption back to about the same level as in 2001. Pork production during 2003 is also expected to fall below 2002s, although the decline will likely be less than one percent. Still, a modest decline in production and an improvement in the pork trade picture could lead to U.S. consumers eating about one percent less pork than in 2002. Finally, U.S. consumers are not expected to see quite as much chicken in the meat case as they did in 2002, assuming chicken exports start to recover following a dismal year in 2002. As a result, domestic chicken consumption should actually fall slightly (less than 1 percent) below the prior year, which is a rarity.

Following a difficult year in 2002, it looks like smaller U.S. meat supplies could help set the stage for a recovery in cattle prices during 2003. And that would be welcome news for U.S. cattle producers. ©