U.S. beef production is on track to exceed seven billion pounds for the first time ever in the July-September quarter, but the trend is likely to slow this fall, which may set the stage for higher cattle prices, says Mintert.

If reached, the seven billion-pound beef output will be five percent more than for the summer quarter a year ago.

"But the large year-to-year increases in beef production could come to an end this fall," says Mintert. "Lower placements this past spring and early summer should make for lower slaughter levels this fall. Weights could exceed a yearago, but the percentage increase could be small, perhaps less than one percent."

Thus, commercial beef production could dip two to three percent.

The prospects for higher prices, however, will be tempered somewhat by large competing meat supplies, the economist says.

Mintert expects slaughter levels this winter to remain below last year's, which should support the cattle price recovery.

"The wild card this winter could be weights," he said. Typical weather this winter implies weights will be near a year ago. But if winter weather is more severe, weights could actually drop below a year ago, and drive production down.

"The difference in weather scenarios could mean the difference between cash slaughter cattle prices this winter averaging in the low $70s versus the mid-$70s," Mintert said.