MORNING SOFTS COMMENTS

Jack Scoville

Monday, February 22, 2021

Price Futures Group, CBOT

Chicago, IL

(312) 264-4322

jscoville@pricegroup.com

JSL, SA de CV

San Salvador, El Salvador (503) 2260-7806jslsadecv@comcast.net

JSL, SA

jslsa@comcast.net

COTTON

General Comments: Futures were higher for the week and made a new weekly chart high close once again. The weekly export sales report on Friday showed solid demand for US Cotton despite the Lunar New Year holiday and the demand has been strong even with the Coronavirus around and getting worse. The overall weaker US Dollar has helped demand ideas as well although the Dollar has started to firm recently. The US stock market has been generally firm to help support ideas of a better economy here and potentially increased demand for Cotton products. The USDA Outlook Forum showed a tight scenario for next year with ending stocks at just 3.8 million bales.

Overnight News: The Delta will get mostly isolated showers and below normal temperatures and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions and near normal temperatures. Texas will have scattered showers and much below temperatures. The USDA average price is now 85.59 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 100,326 bales, from 100,326 bales yesterday. ICE said that 18 notices were posted for delivery against March contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 18 contracts.

Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 9340 May. Support is at 9000, 8910, and 8790 May, with resistance of 9120, 9180 and 9240 May.

COT -- Supplemental Report - Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 16, 2021

: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable

:---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Positions

: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total

: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short

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COTTON NO. 2 - ICE FUTURES U.S.

CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 290,036

: Positions :

: 78,256 8,576 52,289 49,576 213,423 88,289 7,925 268,411 282,213: 21,625 7,823

: Changes from: February 9, 2021 (Change in open interest: -4,303) :

: -1,327 -850 3,388 -6,865 -5,666 993 -1,496 -3,811 -4,623: -492 320

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :

: 27.0 3.0 18.0 17.1 73.6 30.4 2.7 92.5 97.3: 7.5 2.7

: Total Traders: 296 Number of Traders in Each Category :

: 130 38 79 49 62 48 23 261 178:

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FCOJ

General Comments: FCOJ closed lower as the cold weather might have damaged production potential in Texas and Mexico is already part of the price. Some damage to leaves and open flowers was possible, but ideas are that the overall damage was minor. Moderate temperatures were reported in Florida last week. The weather in Florida is good with a few showers to promote good tree health and fruit formation. Showers are falling in Brazil now and crop conditions are called good. Mexican crop conditions otherwise are called good with rains, but earlier dry weather might have hurt production. It is dry in northern Mexican growing areas.

Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures.

Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down with objectives of 106.00 and 101.00 March. Support is at 108.00, 103.00, and 100.00 March, with resistance at 112.00, 115.00, and 117.00 March.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of February 16, 2021

: Reportable Positions :

:------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :

: Producer/Merchant : : : :

: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :

: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :

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FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE - ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :

CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 15,177 :

: Positions :

: 5,825 8,308 1,500 107 1 1,503 1,542 4 908 678 1,898 :

: Changes from: February 9, 2021 :

: 11 139 102 2 1 -151 -103 -2 25 -29 -98 :

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :

: 38.4 54.7 9.9 0.7 0.0 9.9 10.2 0.0 6.0 4.5 12.5 :

: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 63 :

: 18 12 5 . . 7 11 . 13 5 10 :

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COFFEE

General Comments: Futures were higher for the week in New York on ideas of less offer from Brazil and a little higher in London as Vietnam producers stopped selling during the Tet holiday. Tet is now over but selling is slow to resume. There are reports of good weather in Vietnam for the harvest. Indonesia has had good weather but has little coffee to sell now. Brazil has been dry for flowering and initial fruit development and it has been warm and dry in recent times. Rains are now falling that could be very beneficial. Vietnam has harvested its production under mostly dry conditions. Central America is also drier for harvesting. Good growing conditions are reported in Colombia and Peru. The demand from coffee shops and other food service operations is still at very low levels. Reports indicate that consumers at home are consuming blends with more Robusta and less Arabica.

Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 1.734 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 120.73 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers with near normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers or dry conditions. Vietnam will see mostly dry conditions. ICE said that 74 notices were posted for delivery against March contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 192 contracts.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 134.00 and 141.00 May. Support is at 126.00, 124.00, and 121.00 May, and resistance is at 131.00, 134.00 and 137.00 May. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 1400 and 1430 May. Support is at 1370, 1350, and 1320 May, and resistance is at 1400, 1420, and 1430 May[JS1] .

COT -- Supplemental Report - Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 16, 2021

: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable

:---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Positions

: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total

: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short

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COFFEE C - ICE FUTURES U.S.

CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 293,289

: Positions :

: 43,149 23,695 71,404 77,624 177,132 88,719 14,055 280,896 286,286: 12,393 7,003

: Changes from: February 9, 2021 (Change in open interest: -32,865) :

: -417 -118 -16,609 -14,247 -16,329 -243 -71 -31,516 -33,127: -1,349 262

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :

: 14.7 8.1 24.3 26.5 60.4 30.2 4.8 95.8 97.6: 4.2 2.4

: Total Traders: 421 Number of Traders in Each Category :

: 156 70 125 116 118 46 21 373 289:

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DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options

Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures

Combined Positions as of 02/16/2021

Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers

Processor/User

OI Long Short Long Short Spreading

===============================================================================

ICE Futures Europe

150,732 65,486 66,685 16,447 14,689 2,851

Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader

100% 43.4% 44.2% 10.9% 9.7% 1.9%

Number of Traders in Each Category

146 48 40 13 4 10

Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

Managed Money Other Reportables

Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading

===============================================================================

19,074 28,109 3,196 10,312 3,992 27,149

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

12.7% 18.6% 2.1% 6.8% 2.6% 18.0%

Number of Traders in Each Category

22 18 13 14 15 21

Nonreportable Positions

=======================

Long Short

=======================

6,217 4,06

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

4.1% 2.7%

SUGAR

General Comments: New York and London closed higher and both markets made new highs for the move and new contract highs. Ideas of increased demand are still around as traditional buyers have been active. Rains were reported again in Brazil. It has been raining in south central Brazil and the production of cane is over for the season. Production has been hurt due to dry weather earlier in the year. India is producing less Sugar and more Ethanol. Thailand might have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season. The EU Sugar crop is less this year as is the crop in Russia.

Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 1770 and 1830 May. Support is at 1670, 1610, and 1580 May, and resistance is at 1720, 1730, and 1780 May. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 475.00, 461.00, and 458.00 May, and resistance is at 488.00, 494.00, and 500.00 May.

COT -- Supplemental Report - Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 16, 2021

: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable

:---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Positions

: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total

: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short

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SUGAR NO. 11 - ICE FUTURES U.S.

CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,273,244

: Positions :

: 190,399 45,681 211,284 431,092 909,851 324,771 58,087 1,157,545 1,224,902: 115,699 48,342

: Changes from: February 9, 2021 (Change in open interest: -82,644) :

: 6,127 1,059 -41,963 -38,028 -27,839 -3,901 -11,300 -77,765 -80,043: -4,879 -2,601

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :

: 15.0 3.6 16.6 33.9 71.5 25.5 4.6 90.9 96.2: 9.1 3.8

: Total Traders: 255 Number of Traders in Each Category :

: 82 35 61 76 80 42 21 229 174:

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DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options

Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures

Combined Positions as of 02/16/2021

Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers

Processor/User

OI Long Short Long Short Spreading

==============================================================================

ICE Futures Europe

90,074 34,810 78,814 10,689 3,071 1,253

Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader

100% 38.6% 87.5% 11.9% 3.4% 1.4%

Number of Traders in Each Category

105 30 41 8 5 7

Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

Managed Money Other Reportables

Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading

===============================================================================

31,543 997 1,984 2,188 533 1,457

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

35.0% 1.1% 2.2% 2.4% 0.6% 1.6%

Number of Traders in Each Category

34 3 7 4 6 6

Nonreportable Positions

=======================

Long Short

=======================

6,150 1,965

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

6.8% 2.2%

COCOA

General Comments: New York and London closed lower on ideas of big supplies available to the market. The ICCO said that the Cocoa surplus would be about 100,000 tons this year. Ivory Coast raised its main crop production estimate by 100,000 tons to 1.65 million tons. There were reports of demand for Cocoa in Ivory Coast, although the reports noted that there is a lot to sell there. The grind data has been weaker again implying less demand for chocolate. Ivory Coast has not been shipping as exporters have asked to hold off. There are ideas of big supplies at origin. Wire reports say that Ivory Coast has abandoned its tax scheme and instead is offering a discount to get Cocoa moving again.

Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 3.544 million bags. ICE said that 0 contracts were delivered against March futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 62 contracts.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2420, 2370, and 2250 May, with resistance at 2460, 2490, and 2520 May. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1630, 1610, and 1580 May, with resistance at 1660, 1680, and 1700 May.

COT -- Supplemental Report - Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 16, 2021

: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable

:---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Positions

: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total

: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

COCOA - ICE FUTURES U.S.

CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 229,387

: Positions :

: 35,176 31,777 51,712 67,092 127,534 62,349 12,687 216,330 223,710: 13,057 5,676

: Changes from: February 9, 2021 (Change in open interest: -270) :

: -1,088 2,423 -763 2,194 -1,936 138 562 481 286: -751 -556

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :

: 15.3 13.9 22.5 29.2 55.6 27.2 5.5 94.3 97.5: 5.7 2.5

: Total Traders: 213 Number of Traders in Each Category :

: 73 43 59 47 37 37 14 185 130:

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DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options

Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures

Combined Positions as of 02/16/2021

Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers

Processor/User

OI Long Short Long Short Spreading

==============================================================================

ICE Futures Europe

279,522 169,964 194,621 22,534 17,511 12,081

Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader

100% 60.8% 69.6% 8.1% 6.3% 4.3%

Number of Traders in Each Category

126 48 45 9 6 9

Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

Managed Money Other Reportables

Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading

===============================================================================

19,388 2,761 14,359 1,865 560 34,666

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

6.9% 1.0% 5.1% 0.7% 0.2% 12.4%

Number of Traders in Each Category

22 9 14 13 8 21

Nonreportable Positions

=======================

Long Short

=======================

4,665 2,963

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

1.7% 1.1%