MORNING SOFTS COMMENTS

Jack Scoville

Monday, May 10, 2021

Price Futures Group, CBOT

Chicago, IL

(312) 264-4322

jscoville@pricegroup.com

JSL, SA de CV

San Salvador, El Salvador (503) 2260-7806jslsadecv@comcast.net

JSL, SA

jslsa@comcast.net

COTTON

General Comments: Futures were higher for the week with support coming from dry weather in Texas and resistance from weaker demand as seen in the weekly export sales report. The demand for US Cotton in the export market was weaker last week, but has been strong even with the Coronavirus causing disruptions at the retail level around the world. The US stock market has been generally firm to help support ideas of a better economy here and potentially increased demand for Cotton products. It is dry in western and southern Texas. Some showers are reported in western areas to help there, but it is still dry overall.

Overnight News: The Delta will get mostly dry conditions except for scattered showers on Saturday and near to below normal temperatures and Southeast will get dry conditions and below normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and near to below normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 85.48 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 95,536 bales, from 95,536 bales yesterday. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against May contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 70 contracts.

Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to up with objectives of 9450 and 10010 July. Support is at 8800, 8600, and 8400 July, with resistance of 9100, 9160 and 9270 July.

COT -- Supplemental Report - Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 04, 2021

: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable

:---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Positions

: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total

: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short

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COTTON NO. 2 - ICE FUTURES U.S.

CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 279,963

: Positions :

: 65,665 6,934 54,811 52,377 201,008 89,178 8,582 262,032 271,335: 17,931 8,627

: Changes from: April 27, 2021 (Change in open interest: -700) :

: -3,194 -56 1,527 645 -1,939 1,540 -345 518 -812: -1,218 112

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :

: 23.5 2.5 19.6 18.7 71.8 31.9 3.1 93.6 96.9: 6.4 3.1

: Total Traders: 267 Number of Traders in Each Category :

: 116 34 79 52 63 43 19 240 172:

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FCOJ

General Comments: FCOJ closed higher after making new lows for the move last week. The price action suggests that prices might have gotten too cheap. The weather in Florida is good with a few showers or dry weather to promote good tree health and fruit formation. The hurricane season is coming and a big storm could threaten trees and fruit. That is still a couple of months away. It is dry in Brazil and crop conditions are called good even with drier than normal soils. Stress to trees could return if the dry weather continues as is in the forecast. Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains, but earlier dry weather might have hurt production. It is dry in northern and western Mexican growing areas. \

Overnight News: Florida should get isolated showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 contracts were posted for delivery against May futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 118 contracts.

Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 112.00, 110.00, and 108.00 July, with resistance at 115.00, 116.00, and 120.00 July.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of May 4, 2021

: Reportable Positions :

:------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :

: Producer/Merchant : : : :

: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :

: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :

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FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE - ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :

CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 15,718 :

: Positions :

: 6,447 7,478 1,924 78 0 1,191 3,505 106 1,262 787 1,583 :

: Changes from: April 27, 2021 :

: 827 -301 13 7 0 -91 940 17 307 176 162 :

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :

: 41.0 47.6 12.2 0.5 0.0 7.6 22.3 0.7 8.0 5.0 10.1 :

: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 72 :

: 16 11 6 . 0 4 19 . 13 9 5 :

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COFFEE

General Comments: New York and London were higher with the current and future Brazil weather in focus. Fears of dry weather impacting the Brazil production continued. It remains generally dry there and there are no forecasts for any significant rains in Coffee areas. It was dry at flowering time as well. It is also the off year in the two year production cycle. Production conditions elsewhere in Latin America are mixed with good conditions reported in northern South America and improved conditions reported in Central America. Conditions are reported to be generally good in Asia and Africa.

Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 1.993 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 137.47 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers or dry conditions. Vietnam will see scattered showers. ICE said that 0 contracts were tendered for delivery against NY May futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 992 contracts.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 159.00 July. Support is at 147.00, 144.00, and 142.00 July, and resistance is at 155.00, 157.00 and 159.00 July. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 1560 July. Support is at 1500, 1480, and 1440 July, and resistance is at 1570, 1600, and 1630 July[JS1] .

COT -- Supplemental Report - Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 04, 2021

: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable

:---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Positions

: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total

: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short

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COFFEE C - ICE FUTURES U.S.

CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 344,812

: Positions :

: 53,482 19,613 98,350 86,853 205,575 93,057 14,624 331,741 338,162: 13,071 6,651

: Changes from: April 27, 2021 (Change in open interest: -1,225) :

: 1,758 1,454 412 -3,698 -2,248 -124 -397 -1,652 -780: 427 -445

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :

: 15.5 5.7 28.5 25.2 59.6 27.0 4.2 96.2 98.1: 3.8 1.9

: Total Traders: 463 Number of Traders in Each Category :

: 187 68 136 122 129 45 22 417 304:

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DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options

Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures

Combined Positions as of 05/04/2021

Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers

Processor/User

OI Long Short Long Short Spreading

==============================================================================

ICE Futures Europe

135,126 44,454 82,708 11,837 11,354 3,792

Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader

100% 32.9% 61.2% 8.8% 8.4% 2.8%

Number of Traders in Each Category

152 49 45 9 8 9

Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

Managed Money Other Reportables

Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading

===============================================================================

31,738 5,014 10,218 9,859 2,025 17,467

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

23.5% 3.7% 7.6% 7.3% 1.5% 12.9%

Number of Traders in Each Category

39 11 20 12 12 18

Nonreportable Positions

=======================

Long Short

=======================

5,761 2,548

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

4.3% 1.9%

SUGAR

General Comments: New York was higher last week as the drought conditions continued in Brazil. London closed higher in sympathy with New York. Fears of dry Brazilian weather continued. The primary growing region has been dry in Brazil with little or no rain in the forecast. Production has been hurt due to dry weather earlier in the year. The seasonal crush is off to a slow start and Sugar content of the cane is reduced in initial industry reports from the center-south of Brazil. India is exporting Sugar and is reported to have a big cane crop this year. Thailand is expecting improved production after drought induced yield losses last year. The EU had big production problems last year but is expecting much better production this year.

Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 1790 and 1870 July. Support is at 1720, 1710, and 1660 July, and resistance is at 1780, 1820, and 1850 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 454.00, 444.00, and 442.00 August, and resistance is at 468.00, 481.00, and 489.00 August.

COT -- Supplemental Report - Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 04, 2021

: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable

:---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Positions

: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total

: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short

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SUGAR NO. 11 - ICE FUTURES U.S.

CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,166,032

: Positions :

: 212,135 31,849 214,219 329,911 813,301 310,464 68,789 1,066,730 1,128,159: 99,302 37,873

: Changes from: April 27, 2021 (Change in open interest: -32,546) :

: -9,617 511 2,307 -29,966 -38,831 4,782 5,238 -32,494 -30,775: -52 -1,771

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :

: 18.2 2.7 18.4 28.3 69.7 26.6 5.9 91.5 96.8: 8.5 3.2

: Total Traders: 252 Number of Traders in Each Category :

: 83 30 65 80 80 41 14 231 166:

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DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options

Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures

Combined Positions as of 05/04/2021

Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers

Processor/User

OI Long Short Long Short Spreading

===============================================================================

ICE Futures Europe

78,463 32,380 65,158 11,868 3,117 1,258

Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader

100% 41.3% 83.0% 15.1% 4.0% 1.6%

Number of Traders in Each Category

110 33 38 11 5 5

Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

Managed Money Other Reportables

Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading

===============================================================================

22,857 2,839 2,919 1,327 20 1,253

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

29.1% 3.6% 3.7% 1.7% 0.0% 1.6%

Number of Traders in Each Category

22 9 11 8 2 9

Nonreportable Positions

=======================

Long Short

=======================

4,601 1,899

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

5.9% 2.4%

COCOA

General Comments: New York and London closed higher. The harvests are over in West Africa. Ports in West Africa have been filled with Cocoa. European demand has been slow as the quarterly grind data showed a 3% decrease from a year ago in grindings. This has been caused by less demand created by the pandemic. Asian demand improved. North American data showed improved demand. But, the supplies are there for any increased demand.

Overnight News: Scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are much higher today at 5.140 million bags. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against May contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,609 contracts.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2400, 2380, and 2360 July, with resistance at 2470, 2500, and 2540 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1600, 1580, and 1540 July, with resistance at 1650, 1670, and 1690 July.

COT -- Supplemental Report - Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 04, 2021

: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable

:---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Positions

: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total

: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

COCOA - ICE FUTURES U.S.

CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 227,253

: Positions :

: 27,331 36,045 50,827 84,445 112,078 52,652 21,365 215,254 220,315: 11,999 6,939

: Changes from: April 27, 2021 (Change in open interest: 10,588) :

: -6,621 9,963 4,162 10,040 -6,408 3,160 2,192 10,741 9,909: -153 679

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :

: 12.0 15.9 22.4 37.2 49.3 23.2 9.4 94.7 96.9: 5.3 3.1

: Total Traders: 217 Number of Traders in Each Category :

: 62 64 64 46 36 33 18 176 154:

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DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options

Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures

Combined Positions as of 05/04/2021

Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers

Processor/User

OI Long Short Long Short Spreading

===============================================================================

ICE Futures Europe

259,253 158,556 161,525 35,105 25,037 7,462

Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader

100% 61.2% 62.3% 13.5% 9.7% 2.9%

Number of Traders in Each Category

135 48 35 12 6 8

Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

Managed Money Other Reportables

Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading

===============================================================================

10,982 20,417 14,791 4,086 1,098 25,939

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

4.2% 7.9% 5.7% 1.6% 0.4% 10.0%

Number of Traders in Each Category

16 21 12 9 12 20

Nonreportable Positions

=======================

Long Short

=======================

2,332 2,984

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

0.9% 1.2%