MORNING SOFTS COMMENTS
Friday, September 24, 2021
Price Futures Group, CBOT
JSL, SA de CV
San Salvador, El Salvador (503) firstname.lastname@example.org
DJ USDA Cold Storage: Totals-Sep 22
WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)==U.S. stocks of pork bellies in freezers
totaled 17.469 million pounds, in August, 37.0% below the previous
month, and 43.7% below August 2020, the U.S. Department Agriculture
In thousand pounds.
Aug 31 Jul 31 Aug 31 Jul 31 warehouse
2021 2021 2020 2020 stocks/Aug
pork bellies 17,469 27,722 31,053 42,374
orange juice 630,885 695,146 723,932 777,820
french fries 884,069 885,044 917,273 867,817
other potatoes 195,983 195,452 222,473 219,902
chicken rstr (whole) 13,722 11,997 29,041 26,670
ham 185,697 152,613 143,909 136,621
total pork 460,059 442,390 464,919 460,635 407,952
total beef 414,935 400,814 449,336 440,176 402,297
total red meat 903,101 869,617 960,686 950,851 837,150
total chicken 708,022 730,905 883,538 876,853
total turkey 425,610 435,479 531,370 522,325
total poultry 1,137,046 1,169,307 1,421,660 1,406,973 1,047,340
General Comments: Futures were higher in response to a stronger US Dollar and a strong weekly export sales report. Demand or US Cotton remains very strong and that is good news for sellers as the strong demand implies strong prices should continue. The demand is expected to be strong from Asian countries as world economies recover from Covid lockdowns. Analysts say the demand is still very strong and likely to hold at high levels for the future. However, the expansion of the Delta variant has given pause to the better demand ideas due to fears of economies here and around the world starting to partially lock down again. Those fears were magnified yesterday by the debt crisis here and the Evergrande crisis in China. Production ideas are being impacted in just about all areas due to the weather extremes. It has been very hot in parts of Texas and the Delta and Southeast have had drenching rains at various times in the last couple of months. Bolls are opening now so any new system to git the Southeast would have a much better chance to damage the fiber. Good US production totals are expected.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions and temperatures trending from below normal to above normal. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 89.32 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 60,107 bales, from 60,107 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 9070, 9010, and 8890 December, with resistance of 9200, 9400 and 9510 December.
DJ On-Call Cotton - Sep 23
As of Sep 17. On-call positions represent spot cotton sold to or
purchased from a merchant, based on New York cotton futures contracts
of 500-pound bales. Prices are not yet fixed against these contracts.
*-denotes changes from the previous week are based on revised data from
Call Previous Change Call Previous Change
Oct 21 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dec 21 49,083 50,545 -1,462 17,166 17,641 -475
Mar 22 45,084 42,808 2,276 8,126 8,172 -46
May 22 15,987 15,747 240 1,224 1,224 0
Jul 22 38,356 38,002 354 5,024 4,668 356
Oct 22 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dec 22 7,080 6,854 226 7,610 7,311 299
Mar 23 1,443 1,416 27 142 142 0
May 23 53 53 0 0 0 0
Jul 23 89 89 0 0 0 0
Dec 23 1,132 1,132 0 2,359 2,359 0
Jul 24 0 0 0 220 220 0
Dec 24 0 0 0 220 220 0
Total 158,307 156,646 1,661 42,091 41,957 134
Open Open Change
Oct 21 202 227 -25
Dec 21 145,738 149,248 -3,510
Mar 22 69,506 67,857 1,649
May 22 21,191 20,043 1,148
Jul 22 15,417 15,190 227
Oct 22 4 4 0
Dec 22 19,083 18,880 203
Mar 23 507 507 0
May 23 45 45 0
Jul 23 20 20 0
Dec 23 990 986 4
Jul 24 0 0 0
Dec 24 0 0 0
Total 272,703 273,007 -304
General Comments: FCOJ closed a little higher after trading both sides of unchanged as weather concerns, especially for Brazil but also for Florida and Mexico, remained important. A freeze hit Sao Paulo state several weeks ago and reports of significant losses are being heard. Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with scattered showers and near normal temperatures. Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains, but earlier dry weather might have hurt production. Northeastern Mexico areas are too dry, but the rest of northern and western Mexico are rated in good condition. Florida is in the middle of the hurricane season but the storms have missed the state so far and crop conditions are good.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against September contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 134.00, 130.00, and 128.00 November, with resistance at 146.00, 149.00, and 150.00 November.
General Comments: New York closed much higher and London closed higher yesterday. It remains a bull market on a lack of supplies available from origin. New York has found support from the lack of Coffee available in Brazil after extreme weather events. London is having trouble sourcing Coffee from Vietnam due to a shortage of containers to carry the Coffee out of the country and as the country suffers from a resurgence of the Covid epidemic. Prices in New York have been firm as the current Brazil harvest starts to wind down. Dry weather and warm temperatures are seen now in Brazil for the last of the harvest. Scattered showers are now in the forecast for Southeast Asia. Good conditions are reported in northern South America and good conditions reported in Central America. Conditions are reported to be generally good in parts of Africa.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 2.125 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 172.16 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 185.00, 182.00, and 178.00 December, and resistance is at 191.00, 194.00 and 201.00 December. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 2250 November. Support is at 2100, 2060, and 2030 November, and resistance is at 2180, 2210, and 2240 November[JS1] .
General Comments: New York and London were both higher yesterday and the trends are turning up on the daily charts. There is still talk of a squeeze developing as the market moves to September expiration. The reduced production potential from Brazil is still impacting the market. India is not offering as world prices are well below domestic prices. The ISO has noted that this will be the second year of deficit production for the world, in large part because of the Brazil freeze that cut production. Consumption of Sugar remains on the light side. Fears that Covid is coming back and could reduce economic activity and demand are still around. Thailand is expecting improved production.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 2040, 2090, and 2120 March. Support is at 1980, 1950, and 1930 March, and resistance is at 2030, 2050, and 2090 March. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 526.00 December. Support is at 508.00, 505.00, and 496.00 December, and resistance is at 520.00, 526.00, and 532.00 December.
General Comments: New York and London closed lower yesterday, but both markets held the weekly range on the charts and trends are still mixed. There are increasing concerns that Ghana will have less production this year. Ghana is the worlds second largest producer behind Ivory Coast. It signed a deal to borrow money for crop financing and export financing for the year. Ivory Coast has stopped selling for the next crop on fears of less supplies. World economies are starting to reopen after Covid and the open economies are giving demand the boost. The weather has had below normal rains in West Africa and crop conditions are rated good for now but there is concern about the lack of rain. Drier weather will be beneficial for the harvest which will be underway soon. Some are forecasting less production in the coming year. Ivory Coast sources told wire services that the country has sold between 1.64 million and 1.66 million tons of Cocoa so far this season. This is considered a very big amount and there are concerns about Cocoa availability at origin moving forward. Cocoa production in Ivory Coast is expected to drop by up to 11% in the 2021/2022 season that starts on Oct. 1 from last year.
Overnight News: Isolated to scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.503 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2600, 2580, and 2570 December, with resistance at 2660, 2710, and 2740 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1800, 1780, and 1740 December, with resistance at 1840, 1850, and 1900 December.