MORNING SOFTS COMMENTS

Jack Scoville

Friday, October 22, 2021

Price Futures Group, CBOT

Chicago, IL

(312) 264-4322

jscoville@pricegroup.com

JSL, SA de CV

San Salvador, El Salvador (503) 2260-7806jslsadecv@comcast.net

JSL, SA

jslsa@comcast.net

COTTON

General Comments: Futures were lower despite a weaker US Dollar that kept export demand ideas alive and in the front of the market. Ideas of weakening demand due to weaker world economies hurt the futures market. The weekly export sales report was strong. Futures in Crude Oil were also higher and the US Dollar worked lower. Demand or US Cotton remains very strong and that is good news for sellers as the strong demand implies strong prices should continue. The demand is expected to be strong from Asian countries as world economies recover from Covid lockdowns. Analysts say the demand is still very strong and likely to hold at high levels for the future. Good US production is expected, but there are some questions about the overall production in Texas. There are ideas of less production from India due to recent adverse weather in Cotton areas there. Chinese Cotton areas have had too much rain as well, and Chinese demand is also strong as clothes makers use foreign Cotton to get away from domestic supplies that might have been produced by forced labor and might not be allowed in the US or other western countries

Overnight News: The Delta will get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. The Southeast should see mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and above normal. temperatures. The USDA average price is now 102.96 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 29,625 bales, from 29,625 bales yesterday.

Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 10530, 10350, and 10200 December, with resistance of 10840, 11130 and 11290 December.

DJ On-Call Cotton - Oct 21

As of Oct 15. On-call positions represent spot cotton sold to or

purchased from a merchant, based on New York cotton futures contracts

of 500-pound bales. Prices are not yet fixed against these contracts.

Source: CFTC

*-denotes changes from the previous week are based on revised data from

last week.

Call Previous Change Call Previous Change

Sales Purchases

Dec 21 33,970 35,817 -1,847 10,929 12,405 -1,476

Mar 22 54,264 46,283 7,981 11,014 8,700 2,314

May 22 18,039 17,512 527 2,013 1,482 531

Jul 22 40,938 40,114 824 5,316 5,038 278

Oct 22 0 0 0 0 0 0

Dec 22 9,009 7,971 1,038 10,617 8,412 2,205

Mar 23 1,601 1,627 -26 311 212 99

May 23 115 125 -10 0 0 0

Jul 23 458 414 44 0 0 0

Dec 23 1,132 1,132 0 2,964 2,816 148

Jul 24 0 0 0 220 220 0

Dec 24 0 0 0 220 220 0

Total 159,526 150,995 8,531 43,604 39,505 4,099

Open Open Change

Int Int

Dec 21 116,391 129,834 -13,443

Mar 22 93,163 85,588 7,575

May 22 27,283 25,456 1,827

Jul 22 19,369 18,347 1,022

Oct 22 21 21 0

Dec 22 27,080 26,153 927

Mar 23 509 505 4

May 23 58 56 2

Jul 23 57 53 4

Dec 23 1,697 1,560 137

Jul 24 0 0 0

Dec 24 0 0 0

Total 285,628 287,573 -1,945

FCOJ

General Comments: FCOJ closed was higher and chart trends are starting to turn up. The hurricane season has passed its peak and the chances for a damaging storm to hit the state of Florida are dropping by the day. The weather remains generally good for production around the world. Brazil has some rain is in the forecast and flowering will be possible in the next couple of weeks. Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with scattered showers and near normal temperatures. Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains. Northern and western Mexico is rated in good condition. Florida is in the latter stages of the hurricane season but the storms have missed the state so far and crop conditions are good.

Overnight News: Florida should get dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get scattered to isolated showers and above normal temperatures.

Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are down with objectives of 117.00 November. Support is at 118.00, 116.00, and 113.00 November, with resistance at 125.00, 129.00, and 132.00 November.

COFFEE

General Comments: New York and London closed lower yesterday on a lack of bullish news and trends are mixed in both markets. The lack of Coffee and freight to move the Coffee that is available is still supporting futures. New York and London are both having trouble sourcing Coffee from any country due to a shortage of containers to carry the Coffee out of the origin country. Scattered showers are still in the forecast for Brazil and some flowering is expected. Scattered showers are now in the forecast for Southeast Asia and big rains are possible in Vietnam from a tropical system over the course of the next week. Vietnam got big rains in the past week so some flooding is possible. Good conditions are reported in northern South America with above average rains and good conditions reported in Central America with near average rains. Conditions are reported to be generally good in parts of Africa.

Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 1.909 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 182.35 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers with near to below normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 200.00, 195.00, and 190.00 December, and resistance is at 215.00, 218.00 and 224.00 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2080, 2060, and 2020 November, and resistance is at 2120, 2150, and 2180 November[JS1] .

SUGAR

General Comments: New York and London were a little lower in correction trading. Supplies of White Sugar are a little tight right now for the demand. Renewed talk of inflation coming to all commodities markets also supported the markets. New York closed a little lower on improved weather conditions for the net Sugarcane crop in Brazil. Trends are down on the daily charts in both markets and speculators are reported to be selling. Ideas are that the supplies available to the cash market are rather slim and that demand is increasing for both White and Raw Sugar. The reduced production potential from Brazil is still impacting the market. India is not offering as world prices are well below domestic prices and has had some weather problems of its own. Consumption of Sugar is said to be improving from previous low levels but still remains rather low. Thailand is expecting improved production. It is raining in southern Brazil which will be good for the next crops there.

Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should average below normal today, then above normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 1880, 1830, and 1700 March. Support is at 1880, 1830, and 1810 March, and resistance is at 1930, 1950, and 1980 March. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 494.00 and 474.00 December. Support is at 496.00, 485.00, and 481.00 December, and resistance is at 507.00, 515.00, and 522.00 December.

COCOA

General Comments: New York and London closed higher in recovery trading. Ideas of short West African production for the coming year are still providing the best support but ideas that demand will only improve slightly kept futures from making any rally attempt. Both Ivory Coast and Ghana are reporting improved weather as it is now mostly sunny with some scattered showers around. World economies are starting to reopen after Covid and the open economies are giving demand the boost.

Overnight News: Isolated to scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 5.378 million bags.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 2470, and 2400 December. Support is at 2470, 2440, and 2400 December, with resistance at 2540, 2580, and 2630 December. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1710 December. Support is at 1740, 1700, and 1690 December, with resistance at 1770, 1820, and 1830 December